Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
